As recently as two weeks ago, Donald Trump told the conservative radio show “Sid & Friends in the Morning” that he was warming up to the idea of backing a national abortion ban.
“The number of weeks, now, people are agreeing on 15, and I’m thinking in terms of that,” he said on March 19, adding that he would announce the particulars of a national ban “at the appropriate time.”
But apparently now isn’t the appropriate time, despite two bombshell rulings by the Florida Supreme Court effectively allowing a six-week statewide ban to take effect while giving Floridians the chance to vote on an abortion rights ballot measure in November.
As soon as the whipsaw rulings came down Monday, President Joe Biden’s campaign pounced, launching a new ad campaign hitting Trump for ending Roe v. Wade, holding a press call, and releasing a strategy memo to reporters on Biden’s “opening in Florida.”
Trump took the opposite path, one that doesn’t come naturally: He clammed up. On Tuesday, the ever-loquacious candidate, who routinely brags about terminating Roe, said only that he would release a “statement” on Florida’s six-week ban next week. Amid the Republican primary race last fall, Trump called Florida’s six-week ban, signed by his rival, Gov. Ron DeSantis, a “terrible mistake.”
Meanwhile, Trump’s campaign sought to paint the November ballot measure as being perfectly in line with their candidate’s belief that states should own the issue.
“President Trump supports preserving life but has also made clear that he supports states’ rights because he supports the voters’ right to make decisions for themselves,” Brian Hughes, a senior adviser to the Trump campaign, told Politico.
That message is pretty muddled, given that Trump is promising a big announcement on a national abortion ban—an idea he has reportedly been chewing over for the past several months.
But Democrats aren’t just pressing the matter at the top of the ticket.
Rep. Debbie Mucarsel-Powell jumped on the issue too, with the Democratic Senate candidate telling Daily Kos that voter approval of the ballot measure would be an exercise in futility if Floridians fall short of voting out Republican Sen. Rick Scott at the same time.
“Not only should we make this the law here in Florida, but we need to make sure that we do not reelect Rick Scott, who, in the Senate, would be pushing a national abortion ban,” she said. “It would mean nothing if we pass this ballot initiative in Florida and then we have a Republican Senate majority pushing for that.”
When DeSantis signed the six-week ban into law last year, Scott said he too would sign the ban if he were still governor. In 2020, Scott co-sponsored a bill proposing a national 20-week abortion ban.
House Democrats also smell an opportunity in the making. While visiting the Sunshine State on Monday, Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries dubbed Florida “ground zero” in the national abortion debate.
“Florida is now ground zero in the fight to protect a woman’s freedom to make her own reproductive health care decisions,” Jeffries said at a House Democratic leadership meeting on Tuesday in Fort Lauderdale.
Jeffries said an “extreme group of individuals” in that state is trying to “jam their radical right wing ideology down the throats” of Floridians on the way to passing a nationwide abortion ban.
“But we can stop them. We must stop them, and we will stop them together,” Jeffries said.
Democrats have their eyes on flipping two House seats in the state as part of the 33 Republican districts they are targeting nationally. They believe the new abortion landscape is perilous for GOP Reps. Anna Paulina Luna and María Elvira Salazar in Florida’s 13th and 27th districts, respectively.
In a statement to Daily Kos, Lauryn Fanguen, a Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee spokesperson, said the ballot measure dealt a “serious blow” to both Republicans’ reelection chances.
“There’s no question that when abortion rights are on the ballot, Democrats, Republicans, and Independents alike turn out to vote to protect their freedoms,” Fanguen said, adding that voters couldn’t trust either Republican legislator to do so. “While voters were mourning the loss of Roe v. Wade, Luna and Salazar were celebrating the decision that has now led to chaos and heartbreaking stories across the country,” she added.
The Tampa Bay Times reported that Luna’s campaign sought to downplay the role abortion would play in her race, saying she doesn’t even have a “legitimate” Democratic opponent, presumably referring to the packed Democratic primary in the district.
But Democratic groups aren’t waiting around to target anti-abortion Republicans. In February, Salazar became the first GOP lawmaker to make EMILY’s List “On Notice” lineup of 17 conservative legislators the group aims to unseat in November.
Political scientist Michael Binder, faculty director of the Public Opinion Research Lab at the University of North Florida, told the Tampa Bay Times that downballot candidates stand to gain the most from the abortion rights ballot measure.
Binder expects that measure to draw younger liberals to the polls who might not otherwise have voted in November.
Among those lower-propensity voters, Binder said, “you have to assume … they’re going to hit ‘D,’ or they’re going to hit nothing” on downballot races.
Kerry and Markos talk about Florida, its strict abortion ban, and Democratic challengers’ chances in the Sunshine State.