The Morning Digest is compiled by David Nir, Jeff Singer, and Stephen Wolf, with additional contributions from the Daily Kos Elections team.
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Leading Off
● NV-Sen: Democratic Sen. Jacky Rosen announced Thursday that she just booked $14 million in ad time from late July through Election Day, a sum her campaign called the largest ad reservation in Nevada history. Rosen’s move comes two months after her allies at Senate Majority PAC booked $36 million to defend her.
Though Election Day may be seven months off, campaigns and outside groups have an incentive to make reservations well ahead of time so they can lock in cheaper ad rates before high demand brings prices up. That’s especially true in Nevada, a perennial swing state that will once again see massive spending on the presidential election from Joe Biden, Donald Trump, and outside groups on both sides.
But while the White House and Senate campaigns will attract the most attention in the Silver State, they’re by no means the only ones competing for advertising time.
Reproductive rights advocates are also waging an expensive battle to support a ballot measure to enshrine abortion rights into the state constitution, with AdImpact reporting last week that Nevadans for Reproductive Freedom had made its own $10.8 million reservation. Other contests, including a Democratic drive to gain a two-thirds supermajority in the state Senate, will further drive up ad prices.
Rosen can focus on the general election because she has no serious intra-party opposition and millions in her war chest, but not every candidate is in such an advantageous position. Army veteran Sam Brown, the choice of national Republicans, just got a reminder that he can’t ignore the June 11 GOP primary, since former Ambassador to Iceland Jeff Gunter just launched a $3.3 million advertising campaign.
Outside Republican groups don’t need to wait until the GOP nomination is decided before attacking Rosen, but perhaps surprisingly, there’s been no word of any major super PACs booking TV time for the fall just yet. That will change before long, but Rosen still has reason to hope that a messy primary leaves her eventual opponent drained,
And even when the cavalry does finally show up for the GOP, it bears noting that outside money doesn’t go nearly as far as campaign cash. That’s because FCC regulations entitle candidates to discounted rates on TV and radio—a benefit that super PACs and party committees don’t enjoy.
And that in turn is something to bear in mind when comparing ad spending in dollar figures. For a true apples-to-apples comparison, media professionals rely on metrics like the total number of ads bought, gross ratings points, and share of voice.
1Q Fundraising
- MI-Sen: Elissa Slotkin (D): $4.4 million raised, $8.6 million cash on hand
- PA-Sen: Bob Casey (D-inc): $5.6 million raised
- CA-41: Will Rollins (D): $1.8 million raised, $3 million cash on hand
- FL-27: Lucia Báez-Geller (D): $142,000 raised
- IA-01: Christina Bohannan (D): $820,000 raised
- MD-03: Harry Dunn (D): $3.6 million raised
- MI-07: Curtis Hertel (D): $1.3 million raised, $2 million cash on hand
- MT-01: Monica Tranel (D): $740,000 raised
Senate
● MI-Sen: Actor Hill Harper filed updated financial disclosure reports with the U.S. Senate late last week, a move that came over a month after he blew past his self-imposed Feb. 28 deadline to do so—and more than four months after the Detroit News first reported that Harper improbably claimed he had no bank accounts and earned no income during the prior two years.
The new documents, by contrast, reveal that Harper omitted millions of dollars in investments and income, a failure he blamed on an unnamed former staffer. In addition, Harper continued to earn five-figure speaking fees after announcing his entry into the Democratic primary for Michigan’s open Senate seat, despite claiming he’d stopped following the launch of his campaign.
Reporter Melissa Nann Burke cited experts who described Harper’s decision to keep accepting paid speaking gigs as “somewhat uncommon” for a political candidate, due to “concerns about potential conflicts of interest.”
On the Republican side, Rep. Jack Bergman this week endorsed the GOP frontrunner, former Rep. Mike Rogers.
● PA-Sen: Franklin & Marshall College’s newest survey of Pennsylvania finds Democratic Sen. Bob Casey leading wealthy Republican Dave McCormick 46-39, compared to a 47-35 advantage in January. (The school’s prior poll in October also found Casey ahead 46-39.)
Respondents also favor Joe Biden over Donald Trump, though F&M did something unusual with this question. Half of the respondents were asked who they favored in a head-to-head matchup, while the rest were quizzed whom they’d back in a scenario with third-party and independent candidates. Biden leads 48-38 when Trump is his only named opponent, and by a smaller 42-40 margin when other options are included.
Governors
● WA-Gov, WA-Sen: Republican pollster Echelon Insights’ new survey for a group called Concerned Taxpayers of Washington State shows former Republican Rep. Dave Reichert leading Democratic Attorney General Bob Ferguson 39-30 in the general election for governor. Both parties acknowledge that Reichert can win the race to replace retiring Democratic Gov. Jay Inslee, but there are reasons to be skeptical that the Republican has a decisive advantage in this blue state.
Echelon’s critics have highlighted the fact that the same poll shows Democratic Sen. Maria Cantwell with only a 44-36 edge over her little-known Republican foe, Raul Garcia, as part of their case that the pollster did not get an accurate read on the electorate. The poll further finds Joe Biden leading Donald Trump 48-37, which would both be a notable drop from the president’s 58-39 showing in 2020 and the Democratic Party’s smallest margin of victory in a presidential race since 2004.
Observers also remembered the GOP’s polling debacle in the 2022 race for the Evergreen State’s other Senate seat. While Echelon did not release data for that contest, several other conservative firms found a tight battle between Democratic Sen. Patty Murray and Republican Tiffany Smiley even as Democrats and non-aligned pollsters placed the incumbent well ahead.
The Republican numbers heavily weighed down polling aggregates, so much so that FiveThirtyEight’s final average had Murray ahead just 50-45. A New York Times analysis that separated out conservative pollsters found them putting Murray up just 2 points. But the GOP take on the race proved to be a gigantic misfire, as Murray prevailed 57-43.
The only other general election poll we’ve seen out of Washington this year was a February survey from the Democratic firm Public Policy Polling for the Northwest Progressive Institute, and it found Democrats in much better shape in all three contests. Ferguson led Reichert 46-42, while Cantwell posted a 53-37 advantage. PPP also showed Biden ahead 54-38, which is comparable to how Democrats have performed at the top of the ticket in recent cycles.
House
● CO-08: Health insurance consultant Joe Andujo’s self-funded campaign for the Republican nomination came to an end on Saturday when he took less than 8% of the vote at the GOP’s convention in Colorado’s 8th District. Election authorities had not yet verified whether Andujo handed in enough petitions to make the June 25 primary ballot to face Democratic Rep. Yadira Caraveo in the 8th District, but since he failed to win at least 10% of convention delegates, this question no longer matters.
The winner was state Rep. Gabe Evans, who secured first place with 62% and picked up Andujo’s endorsement at the convention. Evans’ only intra-party foe in this suburban Denver constituency will be former state Rep. Janak Joshi, who managed to earn a spot on the ballot by taking 30%―the bare minimum he needed. (Candidates who don’t collect signatures face a higher threshold.)
But Joshi, who badly lost his last two campaigns while still living in Colorado Springs, is unlikely to be much of an obstacle for Evans: Colorado Springs is located in the 5th District, which is three districts to the south of the 8th.
Evans, who’s been the GOP frontrunner all year, lost his only prominent primary foe in February when Weld County Commissioner Scott James dropped out. Joe Biden would have carried the 8th District, which is based in the northern Denver suburbs and Greeley area, 51-46 in 2020, but Republicans are hoping that Caraveo’s tight 48.4-47.7 win in the midterms foreshadows another close contest.
● IN-08: A trio of well-funded outside groups are taking to the airwaves to derail former Rep. John Hostettler’s comeback campaign ahead of a May 7 Republican primary that, until this week, had attracted little outside attention.
Jewish Insider’s Marc Rod reported on Wednesday evening that the hawkish pro-Israel organization AIPAC, through its affiliated United Democracy Project, is spending more than $500,000 to air ads charging that the former congressman “is one of the most anti-Israel politicians in America” and “voted against giving aid to Israel over and over again.”
AIPAC has not, however, endorsed any Republicans running in the primary to replace retiring GOP Rep. Larry Bucshon in the 8th District, a dark red constituency in southwestern Indiana.
The group began getting involved in Democratic primaries last cycle, but Rod says this is its first intervention in a Republican nomination contest. This also may be its first TV ad that focuses on Israel rather than on other topics.
Hours after the UDP ad became public, the New York Times broke the news Thursday that the Republican Jewish Coalition had booked $1 million in TV time to stop Hostettler, with its first ad set to debut on April 10. The RJC also says it will support one of the former congressman’s primary foes, state Sen. Mark Messmer.
RJC head Matt Brooks joined AIPAC in faulting Hostettler’s voting record, and he also took issue with a book the ex-congressman self-published in 2008 that argued that Jewish Republicans pushed for the Bush administration to invade Iraq in order to help Israel. Abe Foxman, who was then the head of the Anti-Defamation League, denounced Hostettler’s allegation at the time as “the conspiracy theory that keeps on ticking.”
Politico’s Madison Fernandez flags that a third super PAC, America Leads Action, is also running an anti-Hostettler ad campaign backed by about $250,000, according to figures AdImpact shared with NBC. The group has gotten involved in Republican primaries this cycle to try to defeat hardline candidates who could pose a headache for the House leadership―something Hostettler was fond of doing decades ago.
The super PAC, which is funded by North Carolina businessman Jay Faison and Walmart heir Rob Walton, portrays Hostettler as a politician who favored “[t]ax funded raises for himself” and “voted with Nancy Pelosi and the Democrats against a balanced budget amendment.”
Until this week, the only outside spending reported to the FEC was $364,000 to help Messmer from a group called America’s First Freedoms. The state senator is the only sitting elected official among the nine Republicans who are campaigning to succeed Bucshon. Howey Politics wrote Thursday that the primary “appears to be a two-man contest” between Messmer and Hostettler.
● NH-02: 2022 Republican nominee Bob Burns unexpectedly announced Thursday that he would run for an open spot on New Hampshire’s powerful Executive Council rather than wage a campaign to replace retiring Democratic Rep. Annie Kuster. Burns lost to Kuster 56-44 two months after national Democrats successfully boosted him in the GOP primary, but he’s remained undeterred by that bad showing.
On the Democratic side, New Hampshire Public Radio reports that State Employees’ Association president Rich Gulla is interested.
● NY-16: Democratic Majority for Israel has publicized an internal from The Mellman Group that gives its endorsed candidate, Westchester County Executive George Latimer, a wide 52-35 lead over Rep. Jamaal Bowman in the June 25 Democratic primary. (Pollster Mark Mellman leads both organizations.)
This is the first survey we’ve seen of the contest for New York’s safely blue 16th District that included data on a head-to-head matchup. Last month, Bowman’s allies at the Working Families Party publicized a poll from Upswing Research & Strategy that argued that voters aligned with the incumbent’s “positions on the war in Gaza” but notably did not include any numbers testing Bowman against Latimer.
Latimer also received an endorsement this week from former Gov. David Paterson, who became the state’s first-ever Black chief executive in 2008 after Eliot Spitzer resigned in disgrace.
● TX-23: The conservative American Action Network has launched what Inside Elections’ Jacob Rubashkin is a $1.2 million advertising campaign praising Republican Rep. Tony Gonzales on border security, a buy that’s a fair bit larger than the $847,000 price tag we saw last week. The incumbent is trying to fend off gun maker Brandon Herrera in their May 28 primary runoff.
● WI-08: OB-GYN Kristin Lyerly on Thursday became the first notable Democrat to announce a campaign to replace Republican Rep. Mike Gallagher, who previously said he’d resign on April 19.
Donald Trump carried this constituency in the Green Bay area 57-41 in 2020, but Lyerly argued to the Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel that her focus on abortion rights will give her an opening at a time when the country is “suffering” from the “lack of ability to make our own personal health care decisions.” In last year’s Supreme Court race, where abortion was a central issue, analyst Drew Savicki says conservative Dan Kelly won the 8th by a smaller 52-48 margin.
Lyerly previously ran for office in 2020 when she lost a campaign against GOP state Rep. John Macco 52-48 as Trump was carrying his 88th Assembly District 50-48. Lyerly later became one of the three doctors participating in Attorney General Josh Kaul’s challenge to the state’s 1849 abortion ban. A state judge ruled in December that the law in question doesn’t apply to abortion but rather feticide, but conservatives quickly made it clear they’d appeal.
Ballot Measures
● MO Ballot: A committee in Missouri’s Republican-dominated state House on Wednesday advanced a proposed amendment that would enshrine the state’s near-total ban on abortion in the state constitution.
Conservatives, however, are not united behind the measure, which still needs to clear both chambers of the legislature before it can appear on the ballot. One influential anti-abortion group, Missouri Right to Life, told lawmakers it “does not believe this needs to be a ballot issue at this time.”
Republicans are advancing this plan at the same time as reproductive rights advocates are collecting signatures to place their own amendment on the ballot to allow abortions to take place until about 24 weeks into pregnancy. Republican legislators are also trying to advance another amendment that would make it more difficult for progressives—but not conservatives—to change the state’s governing document.
It could be at least several more weeks before we know which proposals will and won’t move forward. The deadline for citizen-initiated amendments to turn in signatures is May 5, while the legislative session ends 12 days later on May 17. Adding to the uncertainty, Republican Gov. Mike Parson gets to decide whether amendments appear on the Aug. 6 primary ballot or the Nov. 5 general election ballot, and he doesn’t need to schedule them all for the same day.
Mayors & County Leaders
● San Francisco, CA Mayor: Democrat Aaron Peskin, the president of the San Francisco Board of Supervisors, announced Wednesday evening that he would take on Mayor London Breed in the Nov. 5 instant-runoff race to serve as the city’s next leader.
Peskin made his plans known hours after The San Francisco Standard first reported he’d hold a kickoff rally on Saturday, telling Politico, “The politics of today are marked by blame and not taking responsibility. The buck stops with the mayor.”
Peskin’s launch makes him the first, and likely only, major progressive in a race that’s been dominated by members of San Francisco’s moderate political faction. In addition to Breed, these contenders include former Supervisor Mark Farrell, nonprofit founder Daniel Lurie, and Supervisor Ahsha Safaí. While candidate filing doesn’t close until June 11, it would be a surprise if any other prominent names get in.
The long-running battle between San Francisco’s opposing ideological blocs can be confounding to observers outside this dark blue city, especially since most local elected officials would be considered ardent liberals almost anywhere else in America. But the San Francisco Chronicle sought to shed light on the divide in a 2018 article.
“Progressives push for more affordable housing, tighter restrictions on tech companies and higher taxes for corporations,” reporter Rachel Swan wrote. “Moderates tend to be pro-development, pro-tech and pro-business.”
However, elected officials are often reluctant to embrace either label. Lurie, for instance, pitched himself as a member of neither group when he launched his campaign in September, though that didn’t stop media outlets from usually identifying him as a moderate. Some local observers have also argued the moderate versus progressive divide obscures more than it reveals.
Peskin, whom SF Gate dubbed the “Napoleon of North Beach” in 2007 for his combative style, is a longtime local politician who has made his share of allies and enemies while in office. While the supervisor is popular with fellow progressives, the Standard notes he “has sparred with colleagues and city staff, leading to an acknowledgment during the pandemic that he had a drinking problem.”
Peskin has used his influence to oppose housing projects that he’s argued threaten neighborhood character and unfairly benefit developers. “I have always believed that you can grow this city without ruining it,” he argued to Politico. “You can be both pro-housing and pro-neighborhood.” The supervisor also said of Breed, who has called for more home construction, “She has embraced a pretty radical, fringe element that doesn’t believe in zoning.”
The incumbent’s team naturally sees things differently. “He is the person most-responsible for creating a city of haves and have nots, by limiting the amount of housing that gets built and freezing out young people from owning a home,” a Breed spokesperson said after news broke of Peskin’s launch.
Ad Roundup
- AZ-Sen: Ruben Gallego (D)
- FL-Sen: Rick Scott (R-inc)
- MD-03: Harry Dunn (D)