Democratic Gov. Janet Mills let a bill become law without her signature that adds Maine’s four Electoral College votes to the National Popular Vote Interstate Compact, under which member states would collectively award their electoral votes to the winner of the national popular vote. Importantly, the compact would come into force only once states with a majority of electoral votes have joined to ensure the popular vote winner becomes president.
Currently, the winner of the statewide vote in Maine earns electoral votes, while whichever candidate wins in either of the state’s two congressional districts gets one additional vote per district. That system will remain in place until the compact is activated, meaning Donald Trump will likely win an electoral vote in the red-leaning 2nd District this year while Joe Biden secures Maine’s other three electoral votes, just as in 2020.
Republicans almost unanimously opposed the new legislation, and they could attempt to put a referendum on November’s ballot that would suspend the law until the election; if voters agree, the law would be repealed. However, a similar repeal vote in Colorado failed in 2020, which was the only time that voters in any state have voted directly on the proposal.
The compact’s 18 current members (which include Washington, D.C.) presently have 209 of the 270 electoral votes needed to activate it. Because Republicans have typically opposed the agreement, its ultimate passage will likely rely on Democrats winning power in several more states. That could happen by 2028, as there’s a tough yet real path to victory, as illustrated in the map at the top of this story (click here to enlarge) and in this companion spreadsheet.
The compact moved closer to the 270 mark last year due to Democratic-led drives in Minnesota, which added its 10 electoral votes to the compact, and in Nevada, which took the first step in a multiyear process that could see the state contribute its six electoral votes by 2026.
In Michigan, meanwhile, a state House committee advanced a bill last year to add that state’s 15 electoral votes to the alliance. The Senate, however, has yet to take action, and the House has been tied since November after two Democrats were elected to local offices. But if Democrats win special elections for those seats on Tuesday, they could once again press forward.