On Monday, the Florida supreme court issued two separate but related rulings. The first found that the state’s 15-week abortion ban is just as constitutional as can be — a finding that will actually allow Gov. Ron DeSantis’s six-week abortion ban to go into effect in 30 days.
“Consistent with longstanding principles of judicial deference to legislative enactments, we conclude there is no basis under the Privacy Clause to invalidate,” the court wrote in the majority opinion.
But all is not lost!
The second ruling will allow the state’s voters to decide for themselves whether or not they want abortion to be legal come this November. The Republican case against the ballot measure was that the language in it was supposedly “confusing” and would cause voters to not know what they were voting for.
It is not clear, precisely, what they think is confusing about this, which I would imagine would be quite clear, even to those daft enough to vote Republican.
“No law shall prohibit, penalize, delay, or restrict abortion before viability or when necessary to protect the patient’s health, as determined by the patient’s healthcare provider.”
Oddly enough, this ruling fell along gender lines, and not the ones you would expect. The four male justices voted in favor of it while the three female justices voted against it.
While I would generally caution anyone against getting their hopes up too much as far the state of Florida is concerned (unless those hopes involve meth-gators in some capacity), these ballot measures have not worked out too well for Republicans, even in the most conservative states. While it’s horrible that Floridians are going to have to go through this, a few months of getting to personally experience and witness the horrors of a six-week abortion ban may very well be the most effective way of driving people to the polls to put a stop to it. Especially considering the fact that 56 percent of Floridians believe abortion should be legal in all or most circumstances.
Unfortunately, as far as some other electoral concerns in the state go, Gov. Ron DeSantis’s blatantly discriminatory redistricting maps — which a federal court just ruled were not blatantly discriminatory — will likely ensure Republican control of the state for the foreseeable future, making it all but impossible for Democrats to win state-wide elections.
There is a possibility that abortion being on the ballot could hurt Trump in the general election — and the Biden campaign has already issued a memo to announce that, between abortion, his “uniquely strong” popularity among senior citizens, and some recent Democratic victories in the state, they see Florida as “winnable” and are hoping to flip it in November.
“Our agenda, our coalition, and the unique dynamics this election presents make it clear: President Biden is in a stronger position to win Florida this cycle than he was in 2020,” Julie Chávez Rodríguez, Biden’s campaign manager (and yes, Cesar Chávez’s granddaughter), wrote in a recent memo. “Make no mistake: Florida is not an easy state to win, but it is a winnable one for President Biden, especially given Trump’s weak, cash-strapped campaign, and serious vulnerabilities within his coalition.”
The memo also notes, correctly, that a ban in Florida amounts to a ban in the entire southeast, which is also likely to mobilize voters.
There was a time when Florida was a swing state. Granted, this was around the same time that West Virginia was a Democratic stronghold, but there is a possibility that it could be again, especially if Republicans keep being terrible and keep taking people’s rights away.
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