In the four weeks since his fiery State of the Union address, President Joe Biden’s campaign has kicked into high gear—barnstorming eight battleground states, opening up more than 100 field offices, making a $30 million ad buy, and launching a Latino outreach strategy targeting the Southwestern swing states of Arizona and Nevada.
Some polls have begun to see movement in Biden’s direction, including a recent Bloomberg battleground poll, the Marquette University polling released Thursday, and the NPR/PBS/Marist poll (compared to its January/February survey).
Since last fall, the standard line in national political reporting has been that Trump leads Biden in the polling. That construct doesn’t hold true any longer. Eyeballing the last two weeks of polls released by nonpartisan outfits (excluding Trafalgar Group) on 538’s aggregate, Biden won six of them, Trump won five, and one found them even.
Data analysts far smarter than me also see positive movement for Biden.
The 538 generic ballot continues to be better for Democrats relative to results earlier this year. At 44.6% to 44.4%, Democrats are now up by a whisper over Republicans, who consistently led in the generic this year until roughly a month ago when Democrats pulled even.
It’s impossible to intuit exactly what goes into subtle shifts among the electorate, but Trump hasn’t exactly been killing it on the campaign trail. His campaigning over the past month has mainly consisted of making courtroom appearances, golfing, some fundraising, and ‘Truthing’ his endless grievances.
Here’s a real post from his Truth Social account.
The presumptive GOP candidate did manage to cause a stir this week in the battleground state of Michigan, where he lied about speaking with Ruby Garcia’s family. The Michigan woman was murdered by a man who was in the country illegally. Trump never spoke to her loved ones.
“He did not speak with any of us, so it was kind of shocking seeing that he had said that he had spoke with us, and misinforming people on live TV,” Mavi Garcia, who has acted as a spokeswoman for her family, said in an interview with WOOD-TV8, the NBC affiliate for West Michigan.
Other local media outlets carried similar stories refuting Trump’s false claim.
From a campaign standpoint, it wasn’t exactly a home run, even though the virulently anti-immigrant aspect of the stop surely thrilled his MAGA faithful.
Kerry and Markos talk about Florida, its strict abortion ban, and Democratic challengers’ chances in the Sunshine State.